The Hungarian economy is a small, very open economy; therefore, sudden shifts in the global economy can easily alter its position and either improve or deteriorate its competitiveness.
The first months of 2025 were eventful from this perspective: the new wave of trade wars, the deteriorating European business environment, the war in Ukraine, and persistent inflation do not seem to support Hungary’s growth plans and even recent investments’ effects (CATL, BYD) need time to make them felt in macroecomic indicators.
Globális kilátások és hatások Magyarországra
The International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for global GDP growth and expects it to be at 2.8 percent for this year and 3.0 percent for 2026.
This assessment reflects a significant deterioration of the global business environment, mainly the estimated negative effects of the trade war because global growth was estimated in January to be around 3.5-3.6 percent in 2025.
The Director of the IMF Research Department, Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, said on April 22, 2025: “Beyond the abrupt increase in tariffs, the surge in policy uncertainty is a major driver of the economic outlook.
According to the European Central Bank, the eurozone is expected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2025, a projection slightly better than the 2024 GDP growth (0.8 percent).
Uncertainty and euroarea kilátások
At the same time, the uncertainty is heavily underlined by the European Central Bank in its macroeconomic projection for the eurozone, released on March 6, 2025: “Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on euro area economic growth, slowing down the anticipated recovery.
This follows slightly weaker than expected growth at the end of 2024. Both domestic and trade policy uncertainty are high.
Német és EU partnerségek, és hatásuk
The German economy, which is a major market for Hungarian export goods and a key economic partner of Hungary in many aspects, is forecast to have a slight recession this year. The forecast was issued by the Bundesbank.
Germany is an export-oriented economy, which makes it more vulnerable to the tariff war than other eurozone countries. However, this is not the only reason Germany is suffering more than the eurozone average. Germany’s largest export market is the United States, which exacerbates the negative effects.
Magyar központi bank és infláció
The new governor of the Hungarian Central Bank, Mihály Varga, said that several analysts believe Trump’s tariff measures might be motivated by the belief that the American dollar is overvalued, and he aims to devalue the American currency.
He hinted that the American president might have other motivations for his trade policy. He also explained that the new administration in the United States differs significantly from the Biden administration, which seemed to lack the needed dynamism in the last months.
EU és Lagarde
Unlike John Biden, the new American president is resolute and made promises during the election campaign that he intends to keep. The governor also cited the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, who thinks that Europe should buy weapons, energy, and agricultural products from the United States to achieve a no-high-tariffs solution for the EU.
Globális növekedés és exportkitettség
The governor also touched upon the global shift in power relations and pointed out that the EU grew by 1 percent, the United States by 2.4 percent, and China by 4.7 percent last year. Another factor he mentioned is the rapid spread of artificial intelligence in the world economy.
He underlined the Hungarian economy’s exposure to the global market: Hungary ranks 34th-35th globally for market exposure, while in terms of population, it is 94th.
2025-ös növekedési kilátások és inflációs sáv
As for 2025 growth, the governor of the Central Bank gave an interval between 1.9 and 2.9 percent and expects annual inflation to be between 4.5 and 5.2 percent. He emphasized that the Hungarian economy is recovering from a tough period, with stronger growth possible by 2026-2027 if investments and external factors improve.
Szolgáltatások és beruházások
The chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank in Hungary, Zoltán Török, is less optimistic. Speaking about the direct impact of the trade war on the Hungarian economy, he said in an interview with Forbes: Here, Hungary’s exports are mainly in the machinery, electronics and automotive sectors, with a significant share of between 10 and 20 percent going to the US.
This is the direct impact, accounting for 3.9 percent of total domestic exports in 2024. This does not mean that this share will now be zeroed out, but some reduction should be expected as a result of the impact of tariffs.
A gazdaság hitkockázatai és hitelminősítés
The negative effects of the trade war are changing the positions of every economy and changing the terms of trade as well, therefore the decision of S&P to change the outlook of Hungary’s sovereign rating to negative should not come as a surprise.
The rating agency affirmed Hungary’s rating (BBB-), the company argued that the negative outlook reflects its view that there are growing risks in the economy.
2025-ös negyedéves adatok és növekedési szerkezet
The most recent data is for the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1 percent in the last quarter of last year compared to the corresponding period of 2024, seasonally and calendar-adjusted data.
If we look at the sectoral distribution of growth, agriculture and manufacturing suffered the most, both sectors’ output contracted in 2024. The decline in agricultural output was 10.4 percent, manufacturing contracted by 4.4 percent, construction by 0.6 percent in 2024, while services could grow by 2.1 percent in the same period.
Infláció, árszabályozás és állami beavatkozás
Inflation seems to be persistent in the Hungarian economy, but recent government measures seem to have had an impact on inflation. In March 2025, the annual inflation rate was 4.7 percent and the price level did not change compared to the previous month.
Services became more expensive by 7.5 percent, food by 7.0 percent, while consumer durables showed only a moderate price increase (2.1 percent) and the price of electricity, gas and other fuels went up by 2.7 percent compared to March 2024.
Piaci árak és kormányzati lépések
At the end of March, the Hungarian government introduced price freeze on 30 food products in order to ease price pressure. We believe that government measures will play a central role in the coming months: after food, market services are also moving towards centralized price regulation.
A key uncertainty is how long existing and newly announced regulations will remain in place; if extended into next year, they could pose a downside risk.
Közvetítő intézmények és biztosítások
According to recent news, the government intends to introduce a new set of price caps for insurance, following similar measures for telecom and banking fees and prices. The government’s press release quoted Economy Minister Márton Nagy. Márton Nagy this way: “In the first three months, it appears that service inflation has stagnated at 10 percent … The insurance sector is largely to blame for this, with insurance prices rising by 16.5 percent.’ … Insurance, such as home insurance, motor insurance and life insurance, has become very expensive. For us, it is acceptable if premiums do not rise this year, if insurers refrain from inflation-linked premium increases and, where they have already been implemented, reverse them. At the same time, home and car insurance premiums will naturally rise in line with inflation.
Kamatlábak és beruházások
The new governor of the Hungarian central bank did not cut the key interest rate any further due to the persistent inflation and its uncertain development, the last cut took place on September 25, 2024, when the rate changed from 6.75 to 6.50 percent.
Munkaerőpiac, bérnövekedés és foglalkoztatás
According to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO), investment fell by 2.2 percent in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. The decrease of investment in 2024 reached 13.8 percent compared to 2023.
The good news is more limited to the labor market, where the unemployment rate remains moderate. The overall unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in March 2025, slightly lower than the 4.6 percent recorded in the same period last year. The robust labor market data is supported by earnings figures. According to HSCO, average gross earnings in February 2025 were HUF 661,400, which is 9.3 percent higher than a year earlier.
Экспорт, внешнеторговля и платежный баланс
The balance of trade in goods is also positive, although the surplus has been decreasing over the last 12 months. The surplus amounted to 1.1 billion euros in February 2025, at the same time the export volume decreased by 6.4 percent and the import volume did not change significantly in February 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year.
Looking at the data of external trade in services, we can see that the surplus of external trade in services was 2.7 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is significantly higher than the surplus of the fourth quarter of 2024 (2.5 billion euros).
Külső adósság és külső finanszírozás
The Hungarian economy has a strong foundation since the external balance has improved, the central bank summarized this process in a press release: “The external balance of the Hungarian economy continued to improve in 2024. The current account surplus increased to 2.2 percent of GDP. With strong external financing capacity and continued net FDI inflows, the economy’s external debt ratios have declined slightly and remain low.
100 év gazdaságtörténete Magyarországról
The Hungarian economy, characterized by its openness and reliance on global trade, is facing significant challenges in early 2025 due to global uncertainties. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded global growth forecasts to 2.8 percent for 2025, attributing it largely to renewed trade wars and policy uncertainty, while inflation remains stubbornly high. The European Central Bank also projects minimal growth for the eurozone at 0.9 percent, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and a loss of competitiveness. Hungary is particularly vulnerable due to its high market exposure relative to its small population.
Záró gondolatok a konvergenciáról
The Hungarian economy’s performance remains fragile: in Q4 2024, GDP growth was a mere 0.1 percent, and full-year 2024 growth was only 0.6%. Inflation persists at around 4.7 percent, driven mainly by services and food price increases. The government has responded by freezing prices on 30 food items and signaling potential price controls in insurance and other services. Investment activity is weak, falling by 13.8 percent in 2024, particularly in transportation, storage, and real estate. Hungary’s trade balance is still positive, although export volumes have decreased. The goods trade surplus stood at 1.1 billion euros in February 2025, while the services trade surplus reached 2.7 billion euros in Q4 2024, buoyed by travel, transport, and business services.
#Geo-Trendek / Nem csak az olaj és a gáz, a világgazdaság is csapdába esett a Hormuzi-szorosnál
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